We live in a critical time. I anticipate a serious non-consensual reduction in the human population during a brief time period in the ensuing century. We may be entering a population bottleneck, though the size of the neck can vary greatly. Enlightenment, prosperity, and liberal democracy are unlikely to grace the humans who will be alive in the coming decades. Certainly not without interruption.
People close to me have already told me i am out-of-pocket with my assessments. I would love to be proven wrong by a milquetoast neoliberal third-wayer that somehow rides a surge of distemper to power, beats back fascism with the bludgeon of institutional reform, makes our republics more responsive, and heads off the worst consequences of climate change with market-based incentives that protect consumers while preserving capital and growth. But i do not anticipate it, and—more importantly—you probably do not, either. More charitably and precisely, do i see a way out of this mess that does not entail a period of mass death? Sure. But the window has been narrowing for decades, and the forces of right-wing populism and a capitalism strained by inequality may have shut it closed. We might not have four years to spare this time around, and even if we did, what would we do differently?
I can admit that my predictions are more pessimistic than most. I am not saying this to make anyone feel hopeless. These are my predictions and they are probabilistic. If you can be optimistic, we need you (at least, i do). If you are ready to resist these forces arrayed against human flourishing and live for a brighter day, maybe hear me out here.
Perspective is important. There will be humans on this planet for at least thousands of years more. A bottleneck is not an extinction, and even a ninety percent population reduction leaves eight hubdred million people roaming the planet. We can impact the quality of their lives, so we have an obligation to them. Because of the power at our fingertips and because the forces likely to shape human life for the coming centuries are in their budding phase, the actions we take now may have an outsize impact on—conservatively—billions of lives. I refer to actions taken by the individual, yes, but bear in mind that collective action will have greater impact. What alternatives can we start building now that might snowball into a viable challenge to hegemonic despair? How can we pool our skills to embed a durable resistance into society? Where do we secure the torch of freedom? And this may sound frivolous, but is important—how do we keep the dream alive?
Our ancestors living in previous millennia may have been zealots blinded by faith, may have been ultra-parochial fools who would spit in our faces if they ever met us. But they were still our ancestors. I catch myself being concerned about the unborn generations of the future who will live in the pollution our lifestyles and choices have created and continue to create. And i catch myself assuming that other people feel that way naturally, beyond the more immediate concern for their (moreso living) children and grandchildren. I realize there are few ways to reify that concern. Our provincial ancestors, i would venture, did not feel strongly about distant generations. I only want to encourage you here to start or continue caring. Why? Well, why anything at all, then? What are we really protecting when we offer chimpanzees more clemency than pigs, grasshoppers, or worms? What are we afraid of losing when we perish? What are we cultivating in children when we show them the world or teach them to read? I think sentience is valuable, and i hope you do, too. Nature's experiment with human intelligence is worth continuing because it factors favorably into utilitarian formulations of ethical goodness. The more people there are surviving the future, the greater the total satisfaction they can find. We have machines that can do the work of ten thousand men. We should have figs and bacchanalia, not raids and Thunderdomes. Right? Is this getting maudlin and cringe? Allow me another, then: Our lives are short and insignificant. But we are part of the larger story of human achievement, from the treetops to the moon and possibly beyond.
Carbon dioxide levels will not naturally return to pre-industrial levels for more than one hundred thousand years. There are likely to be humans on this planet for at least a significant portion of that, no matter what the next century brings. That should inspire awe and a careful obligation (even if we would spit in their faces).
—Lucas