Gaza Is Unsafe

preface

It is impossible to be comprehensive speaking about this conflict.  History is fractal, and history is unfolding.  There is no way to acknowledge every angle and every caveat.

It is also likely impossible to proceed without apparent bias or subjectivity.  I find the actions of Israel atrocious and more concerning than those of Hamas at this point, and that would probably become evident as this piece unfolds.  But i have never been to the region, and remain open to learning more about this situation.

With that said, these are the facts that most color my understanding of the conflict.

context

Gaza is about twice the size of Brooklyn or Washington, DC.  Over two point three million people live there, which is close to the population of Queens.  Its population is comparable to that of Slovenia, fifty-six times its size, or Lesotho, eighty-four times its size.

A major war has broken out in the Levant in every decade since the establishment of Israel.  The interstices have been characterized by occupation, blockade, and economic dispossession, including—at one point—a prohibition (pages 65-66) on planting new citrus trees.

facts

Almost half of Gazans are minors.  That means that men of military age likely make up less than a quarter of the population there.  Women and teens are well capable of violence (and young men are capable of nonviolence), but this is helpful to remember when Israel characterizes casualties and collateral damage.

Israel has destroyed sixty percent of the homes in Gaza since October seventh.

Britain made promises it could not keep with the Balfour Declaration, quoted here in its entirety:

His Majesty's Government view with favour the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people, and will use their best endeavours to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine, or the rights and political status enjoyed by Jews in any other country.

To read this in good faith is to come to the conclusion that Balfour and the British were declaring support for something much more limited than present-day Israel or even the borders established in 1948.  In any case, the land was not theirs to give at the time; it was part of the Ottoman Empire.  And can we even grant the British colonial project in Mandatory Palestine a legitimacy which could justify Zionist claims to the land?  What about the Palestinians who lived there the whole time?  Do they not deserve the same rights of self-determination granted to the Poles in the international order that emerged from the Treaty of Versailles?

It is also interesting that at the time of the declaration, Zionism was a rather fringe idea, rejected by most of the Jewish diaspora.  The idea of a Jewish homeland happened to be a pet project of Lord Rothschild, as well as various antisemites throughout history.

Israel is using unguided bombs in Gaza.  Guided munitions are more costly, and there may be ways to aim dumb bombs.  But Gaza is a densely populated area.  And many humanitarian organizations operate within it.  Israel itself talks about how Hamas embeds with civilians, uses human shields, et cetera.  It is hard to square that with ostensible remorse over civilian casualties or air-to-ground payloads that are half unguided.

Israeli leadership have stated genocidal intentions out loud.  You may recall Netanyahu's rhetoric about Amalek.  It is most concerning coming from political and military leaders, though the sentiment permeates Israeli society.

There are people on both sides—no more and no less.  Many expect the parties on either side to act and desire in accordance with abstract morality or international law, rather than pivot on human feelings like revenge, frustration, and desperation.  If peace is made contingent on angelic standards, the region will never know peace.  People, especially in aggregate, act perniciously in the best of circumstances; war and occupation necessarily shorten tempers, draw down patience, engender cynicism, et cetera.  That makes the displays of humanity all the more incredible.  Hamas has nearly every excuse to treat captives poorly, but treats at least some of them well.

—Lucas